Are pitchers really this overvalued? March Bowman Draft StoxValues v.3
After two weeks of data mining (big shoutout to one of my business partners, also known as my mother), the 2018 Bowman Draft pitcher StoxValues is here.
While building the model for pitchers, I knew from the start it was going to be much harder to predict than the hitters. Since organizations like to hold back their pitching prospects in the half-season following the draft for various reasons (either overworked in college or want to preserve young arms), no statistics could be accounted for when building this model.
Due to that, this model is extremely reliant on prospect rankings and a couple of other factors, possibly leading to lower values than they should be. With that being said, this is the best possible prediction that could be built.
Each player is tagged with a value like the hitter model, but my belief is this model is best utilized if looked at as a pitcher ranking. The second chart shows the predicted values in descending order based on their StoxValue, which is helpful to see who should be selling for more than others, even if the actual dollar amounts may be plus or minus a few dollars.
A lot of people say to not buy pitchers due to the risk of injury and small ROIs, but my advice would be the exact opposite. Currently, I believe a lot of pitchers are good buys and can be doubled up on easily once they get their first season under their belt this year. It is true they sell less than hitters, but a lot of people fail to realize percent increase matters more than the total dollar amount increase. If you buy 30 for $2 and they double to $4, you’re still doubling your total investment, even if you’re only making $2 per card.
The pitcher prediction model has only 32% of the checklist currently selling for lower than their March StoxValue. Based off of my personal experience and knowledge, I think this model is dampening the pitcher values; however, this model is still useful.
There are a few with a current value of less than $5 this model likes, and those could be enough to turn a nice profit on. Also, Cole Winn is a nice target for some investors, with his StoxValue approaching $12.
In the future, I will consider publishing my pitching prospect investments and returns to show people it is possible to make big money on pitchers. The key to all investing is knowing when to get in, and when to get out. If I can provide timeframes of pitcher investments and returns, hopefully, it would make people see the true value in investing in pitchers.
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