SlabStox Bowman Chrome Autograph Color Multiplier – Driven by data
You’re searching eBay and see a listing for a 2018 Bowman Chrome Jarred Kelenic Gold Refractor Autograph /50, but there are no recent completed sales to base your purchase off of. What do you do now?
For all the data I synthesize to create the Bowman Draft StoxValues, I thought it would be extremely useful if I put the same tactics to work but for the different colored refractor autographs.
I have seen different multipliers tossed around a lot on Blowout Forums, but I never had a good understanding of how they were built. I do not know if someone put extensive research into them, but what I do know is this multiplier model is based off of over 1,000 completed Bowman Chrome autograph sales over the past two years. It accounts for varying price levels and pitchers/hitters. It is a well rounded model with lots of data to back it up.
Staying with the multiplier theme, be on the lookout for a PSA/BGS multiplier, most likely dropping the first week of February!
Most interesting piece of data I discovered when conducting my research:
Of the few Superfractor autograph sales I was able to find from 2018 Bowman Draft, the multiplier for three of the players far exceeded the fourth player’s multiplier.
Ethan Hankins’ Superfractor sold 711.91x his base autograph. Josh Breaux’s Superfractor sold 424.64x his base autograph. Triston Casas’ Superfractor sold 395.39x his base autograph.
Nolan Gorman? Only 110.33x his base autograph.
Funny enough, I asked the Bowman Chrome community on Instagram what they thought about Casas’ sale versus Gorman’s on January 25th…
Don’t quote me on saying the Gorman is a steal (because of his obscene base auto price), but compared to the others, sheesh.
I hope the Bowman Chrome community finds this multiplier chart useful, as I know it will help me out when deciding on if I should buy a card or not. It doesn’t only have to be used when there are no recent completed sales, but it can also be used to make investment decisions.
There are a couple things to note about this multiplier. I am confident in the multiplier being accurate from Refractor to Orange. When it starts to get into the Red range, that is where things get sketchy. There are a select few cards that sell from Red to Superfractor, and it is a lot harder to get an accurate reading on that front. Take those with less weight.
I bought my red refractor Cole Winn autograph for $450, but the multiplier has him at $490.73 if his base auto sells for $7.50. That is pretty close, but not as close as if I told you I bought my gold refractor Cole Winn autograph for $90, and the multiplier has him at $87 (or orange purchase for $165, multiplier at $162.90).
How it is used:
To use this SlabStox Color Multiplier, take the recent completed sale of any base autograph of any player, and simply multiply the given color by the base autograph sale price.
For example, if an Alex Kirilloff base autograph is selling for $100, his refractor autograph should be purchased at $155 ($100 x 1.55 = $155).
How to use it to make high quantity investment purchases:
Here is a tip for investors looking to acquire a large amount of autographs of one player. I did this myself when investing in 2018 Bowman Draft players shortly after it released.
Take Travis Swaggerty for example. His autographs were selling for around $17 when I was buying them after release. I told myself I will only buy a refractor of Travis Swaggerty if I can buy it for $26.35 ($17 x 1.55) or cheaper. That way, I was not wasting $3-$5 per purchase, as I knew more would pop up, and I could hold out. When you are buying quantities of 20 of one player, that $5 saved stacks up fast.
At that point I had not developed this yet, but the thought process was the same with a different multiplier.
Aaron’s Top 5 Key Indicators/Takeaways:
- Blue refractors sell 1.41x more than blue wave refractors.
- The 2018 Draft exclusive parallel (Sparkle /71) sells 1.23x better than the 2017 Draft exclusive parallel (70th /70).
- Gold refractors sell 1.42x more than gold wave refractors. In other words, waves in general (both blue and gold) are worth 70.43% of the regular counterparts.
- Green and blue refractors sell about the same (1:1).
- Even though the exclusive parallels have lower print runs than the blacks, the longevity of the black refractor boosts its value above them.
Note: Shimmers from Bowman Chrome are comparable to Waves.
I thought I would finish up with showing the multiplier in action. Keston Hiura’s most recent auction for a base auto sold at $78.77.
Keston Hiura Refractor Auto /499 (1.55x base)
Multiplier Value: $122.07
Keston Hiura Purple Refractor Auto /250 (2.31x base)
Multiplier Value: $181.83
Keston Hiura Blue Wave Refractor Auto /150 (3.12x base)
Multiplier Value: $245.71
Keston Hiura 70th Anniversary Refractor Auto /70 (4.26x base)
Multiplier Value: $335.20
Keston Hiura Blue Refractor Auto /150 (4.39x base)
Multiplier Value: $345.89
Keston Hiura Green Refractor Auto /99 (4.43x base)
Multiplier Value: $348.95
Keston Hiura Black Refractor Auto /75 (6.19x base)
Multiplier Value: $487.25
Keston Hiura Gold Wave Refractor Auto /50 (8.17x base)
Multiplier Value: $643.80
Keston Hiura Gold Refractor Auto /50 (11.60x base)
Multiplier Value: $914.09
Keston Hiura Orange Refractor Auto /25 (21.72x base)
Multiplier Value: $1,710.65
Now this is where you get to see how weird the Red – Superfractor multipliers work. Cannot say if these will work in all cases or not.
Keston Hiura Red Wave Refractor Auto /5 (46.08x base)
Multiplier Value: $3,629.72
Keston Hiura Red Refractor Auto /5 (65.43x base)
Multiplier Value: $5,153.69
Keston Hiura Superfractor Auto /1 (395.39x base)
Multiplier Value: 31,145.23
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