2017 Bowman Draft: Outfielder’s March StoxValues
Going into this project at the beginning of January, I felt confident in the ability to show what Bowman Chrome autographs *should* be selling for. While I am not discrediting my work, it is starting to make me ask more questions.
The total average present value of the 2017 Bowman Draft hitters (excluding Jo Adell, explanation will come later) is $168.50 more than the 2017 Bowman Draft StoxValues. Does this mean past sales trends are starting to become irrelevant? Are buyers artificially overvaluing prospects?
I don’t have an answer for that. What I do know is based on the sale value of MLB draftees after their first full season, these 2017 Draft predictions for March 2019 should be what they are selling for, with the model accounting for 83% (highest rate yet) of the sale price.
Is that 17% that isn’t driven by the past numbers messing everything up? Possibly, but currently this is the best suggested prices I can offer.
Either way, I am going to let this run and see what happens. For those of you that do not know, Baseball America released their new 2019 Top 100 rankings today. The model accounts for that, as I would like to provide you with a jump on everyone else.
What’s Next?
The 2017 Draft infielders and pitchers will be revealed on the 24th and 28th, respectively.
Did someone say another dual Instagram live?
Yes, on Sunday, January 27th @ 5 PM ET, SlabStoxNate will be joining again to have a prospect chat. Stop by to ask your burning questions!
2017 Draft Outfielders (Ranked from last to first by March StoxValue)
13. Cole Brannen – Boston Red Sox
Present Value: $2.65
March StoxValue: $(6.72)
$ Change: $(9.37)
% Change: –353.71%
12. Quinn Brodey – New York Mets
Present Value: $1.57
March StoxValue: $(3.03)
$ Change: $(4.59)
% Change: –293.08%
11. Jacob Pearson – Minnesota Twins
Present Value: $1.75
March StoxValue: $(0.60)
$ Change: $(2.35)
% Change: –134.04%
10. Heliot Ramos – San Francisco Giants
Present Value: $30.09
March StoxValue: $0.17
$ Change: $(29.93)
% Change: –99.45%
Notes: The hype train is holding onto the one hard after an abysmal year.
9. Austin Beck – Oakland Athletics
Present Value: $17.16
March StoxValue: $2.82
$ Change: $(14.34)
% Change: –83.55%
8. Bubba Thompson – Texas Rangers
Present Value: $21.24
March StoxValue: $3.98
$ Change: $(17.26)
% Change: –81.27%
7. Tristen Lutz – Milwaukee Brewers
Present Value: $12.93
March StoxValue: $4.12
$ Change: $(8.81)
% Change: –68.13%
6. Stuart Fairchild – Cincinnati Reds
Present Value: $3.22
March StoxValue: $5.96
$ Change: $2.73
% Change: –84.83%
5. Brian Miller – Miami Marlins
Present Value: $2.82
March StoxValue: $7.37
$ Change: $4.54
% Change: 160.91%
4. J.J. Matijevic – Houston Astros
Present Value: $3.72
March StoxValue: $13.33
$ Change: $9.61
% Change: 258.24%
3. Adam Haseley – Philadelphia Phillies
Present Value: $20.00
March StoxValue: $13.65
$ Change: $(6.35)
% Change: –31.77%
2. Drew Waters – Atlanta Braves
Present Value: $36.69
March StoxValue: $24.96
$ Change: $(11.73)
% Change: –31.98%
1. Jo Adell – Los Angeles Angels*
Present Value: $515.55
March StoxValue: $117.35
$ Change: $(398.20)
% Change: –77.24%
*Notes: The price for the StoxValue is not even close to what the actual price is or will be, most likely ever.A batch of Jo Adell autographs were damaged in the signing/return process. The base are SP and there are no refractors above gold. The supply alone is so low to justify a $515.55 price tag. With that being said, based on Jo Adell’s attributes, if there was a normal supply, you could expect the price to be around the StoxValue.
I hope you all enjoyed the new format of the reveal. If you have any questions or are looking for any advice on Bowman Chrome autographs, feel free to direct message me on Instagram!
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