SlabStox Card Market Report: January 2023

NFL Playoffs, NHL All-Star Break, NBA heating up and the anticipation of MLB Spring Training. It’s a fun time to be a card collector and the local and regional sports card shows are reflecting that–crowds are showing up. We put together this monthly market report to help you navigate the sports card market. Here’s our first look at 2023.

• Take 1: SX100–A modern “community” sports card index
• Take 2: NFL Playoffs = Young QB Craze
• Take 3: Hockey has its moment in the sun
• Take 4: The chase is on for Wembanyama & Bedard
• Take 5: Who’s Hot / Who’s Not
• Looking ahead: Shows, product releases

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DISCLOSURES: 

1. All market data in this report is from Card Ladder. Card Ladder is an independent, third-party partner of SlabStox, providing card collectors and investors insights to make informed, data-driven decisions. Every investment and trading move involves risk. Do your research before making any decision. 
2. SlabStox does not own any of the specific cards represented in the SX100 index.

5 Takes from the January Sports Card Market

TAKE 1: SX100–Introducing a modern “community” sports card tracker

One of our goals last year was to build a method of tracking monthly card market changes in a unique way. We wanted it to represent the more typical sports card collector, so we built an index that encompasses everything we cover in this monthly state of the card market report.

The result? This month we’re unveiling the SX100.

How’s it different? The SX100 is a card index that includes the most bought, sold, discussed and collected sports, cards and players.

The best part of the SX100 Index? We created it for the hobby, and it’ll be managed by the hobby. While we are unveiling the “original SX100 sports card index” in this market report, YOU are going to help us fine-tune this index to be the most representative sports card index for modern era collectors.

How will it change?  Every quarter we will conduct an SX100 survey through our daily hobby newsletter, The Daily Slab, giving you, the collector, an opportunity to vote in/out at most 10

different cards that meet the SX100 criteria. We will send a pre-survey asking readers to suggest cards to include, and then we will send out a final survey that has 10 cards going up in a vote against 10 current cards included in the SX100 index (2 basketball, 2 baseball, 2 football, 1 soccer, 1 hockey, 2 other).

Here’s how we created the SX100 Index. The SX100 is a fun tool for sports card collectors that will be used to measure the health of the hobby in our monthly reports. We expect it to provoke community discussion and debate. While financial indexes are a common comparison, we acknowledge a sports card index cannot be directly compared or built like a financial index. Here’s our best shot at starting off with a meaningful sports card market index. (Thanks to our BETA reviewers for their thoughtful and insightful input to make this index worthy of tracking the hobby.)

Criteria going forward:

1)     Must be an active player (Yes, we want Serena Williams to make a comeback!)

2)     No card will be valued more than $11,000

3)     Cards must sell at least 2 times in the last 3 months

4)     Population of 5,000 or lower (for specific grade represented)

Challenges:  

1) Picking a standard “representative” card between all sports

2) Accounting for differences in values between players. In some cases, we had to choose different cards/grades to properly balance the index.

Introducing, the OG SX100 Index

The Big Picture

Here’s a look at how the SX100 stacks up to other financial indexes for January 2023, as well as the CL50 card market index (provided by Card Ladder).

What’s Next for the SX100

Mid-March we will be sending out the first preliminary SX100 survey to Daily Slab subscribers. (It’s free and gives you a chance to have your say. Sign up here.) After the preliminary round, we will send a final survey to determine if any cards receive enough votes to break the threshold and replace a card in the SX100. It’s the only community decided index in the sports card industry.

Questions you can expect to see in the preliminary survey:

• What is one card/player (per sport) you think does not belong in the SX100?
• What card/player (per sport) would better represent the collecting community?
• Are there any players you believe should be higher/lower valued (compared to its sport peers)?

TAKE 2: NFL Playoffs = Young QB Craze

In card collecting, youth means upside, and that was on display during the 2022-23 NFL Playoffs. Of the 14 quarterbacks to suit up for their teams at the start of the playoffs, nine of them were age 26 or younger, (Patrick Mahomes barely missed at 27). The average age of a starting QB this playoffs was 27.6 years old, and the AFC average was far lower at 24.8 years. It has been a youth explosion at the QB position and in the card market. We watched this month as multiple QB prices exploded, but none were more fun to watch than Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts.

• Mr. Irrelevant makes his mark. Purdy started his NFL career as the last pick in the 2022 Draft and found himself in the spotlight due to injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo. The Iowa State product didn’t disappoint and brought a modern take of
  “Rudy” to the NFL, leading the 49ers team on a miraculous run to the NFC Championship with 8 straight wins. Unfortunately, the Niners injury bug followed, and he tore his UCL in that game ending his Cinderella run to the Super Bowl. That shouldn’t detract from how special a run it was both for the 49ers and Purdy sports cards.

The first Purdy 2022 Donruss Elite Red RC /399 sale closed at $17 (11/24/22).  The last sale happened on January 30th and despite the loss to the Eagles, it still sold for $135.50. That is a 697% increase over the course of the season. It should be noted: We fully expect these prices to come down fast as more Purdy cards are released and the big hype dies down.

• Hurts is the real deal. On the winning side of the NFC Championship, you have Hurts. The former Alabama castoff was the darling of the card market this season. His prices started to explode this summer, and not often does a young player with loads of expectations heaped on his shoulders outperform those expectations. Yet that’s what Hurts did. He threw for 3700 yards and ran for another 760. He was responsible for 35 of the Eagles touchdowns scored this year in the regular season and another four in the playoffs on his way to the Super Bowl.

The success Hurts had during the season and in the playoffs has spiked his 2020 Prizm Silver RC PSA 10 to increase from $560 (8/7/22), the first sale after the National, to $1,050 (1/29/23). That’s an 87.5% increase since the end of summer.

Aside from the two big gainers above, plenty of young QBs also had nice movement this playoff season. We are considering the start of December as the start of the playoff season since that is when the pressure to win starts to build.

• Trevor Lawrence (23) led the Jaguars to a surprise playoff appearance. His 2021 Prizm Silver RC PSA 10 (POP 37) increased 95% since the start of December.
• Joe Burrow (26) led the Bengals to back-to-back AFC Championship appearances. Card buyers responded: Burrow’s 2020 Prizm Silver RC PSA 10 increased 92% since the start of December.
• Daniel Jones (26) got the New York Giants back into the playoffs for the first time since 2016, as they snagged a wildcard spot and advanced by upsetting the 13-4 Vikings. His 2019 Prizm Silver RC PSA 10 has increased 152% since the start of December.

On the flip side, there was one QB who had a major card market drop this playoff season—Josh Allen (26).

• Allen and the Bills came into the season as MVP and Super Bowl favorites. They ended up falling well short of those lofty expectations and Allen’s market suffered. Allen’s 2018 Prizm Silver RC Auto PSA 10 decreased 43% since the start of December. This is a tough decline and a reminder of the risks of investing in young QBs when they don’t reach the hype and expectations of the card market.

TAKE 3: Hockey has its moment in the sun

With the NHL All-Star Weekend in the books and the second half of the season starting, it’s the perfect time to take a closer look at the hockey category and card market:

• The standout team. The first half of the season has been the Boston Bruins’ oyster. They have posted the best record in the league through the first half of the season—39-7-5 with 83 team points. No team is close. Leading the Bruins to its impressive first half is David Pastrnak, who tops the team in goals, assists and points (38/334/72). He’s on pace for his career-best season (2014-15 debut), sitting second in the NHL for goals at the break with 38, just three behind Connor McDavid (41). He’s also fourth in total points.
• Surprise team of the first half. That goes to the young upstart Seattle Kraken, the league’s second-year expansion team that leads the Pacific Division with a 29-15-5 record and 63 team points. This season, the Kraken have already surpassed their 27-win inaugural season. More impressively, they are doing it as a team with three different wingers leading the team in goals (Jared McCane, 23), assists (Jordan Eberle, 28), and points (Andrew Burakovsky, 39). There isn’t one superstar, but they’re all raising each others’ game.

• Top-shelf players. Last year we reported Connor McDavid was off the charts with a 44 goal and 123-point season to lead the NHL. This season, he’s playing at a legendary level.

McDavid is running away with the points race at 92 points and is on pace to be one of only three players EVER to surpass 180 points in a single season (Wayne Gretzky, six times, and Mario Lemieux, once). McDavid’s 2015 Young Guns RC PSA 10 increased 18% over the last six months.

Like McDavid, Alexander Ovechkin is chasing down a monster record of his own but this one spans an entire career. In his sights is Wayne Greztky’s record of 894 career goals. Ovechkin (812 goals) is currently 82 goals off the record having surpassed Gordie Howe (801)  this season. Ovechkin’s 2005 Young Guns RC PSA 10 is up 17% over 3 months as he moves closer to the all-time record.

• Players to watch. We have two–Pastrnak, who we already mentioned, and Jason Roberson of the Dallas Stars. Here’s what we’re seeing:
  • The second-best goal scorer in the league thus far, Pastrnak’s 2014-15 Upper Deck Young Guns RC PSA 10 last sold in January for $1,000 (1/28/23), a 52% increase over the last six months.
  • Robertson is having a career year with the Stars. He leads the team with 33 goals and 66 points overall, and the Stars lead the Central Division-West at the season’s midpoint. He is currently in the Top-7 for points this season and is tied for fifth for goals scored. Robertson’s 2020 Upper Deck Young Guns RC PSA 10 recently sold for $388 (1/29/23), 125% increase over the last three months.
• Remembering a legend. Hockey lost one of its biggest names on January 30. Bobby Hull, the Golden Jet, passed away at age 84. He played 15 years with the Chicago Blackhawks scoring a team-leading 604 goals. He brought the Stanley Cup back to Chicago in 1961 after a 23-year drought and was the first NHL player to sign a $1 million contract in 1972. He was inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame in 1983.

TAKE 4: The chase is on for Wembanyama & Bedard 

Over the last 20 years, the two biggest pre-draft superstars were no doubt LeBron James and Zion Williamson. The two of them captivated basketball fans across America, as mixtapes and highlight reels racked up millions of views. Each of them ended up getting drafted #1 overall, and LeBron James not only lived up to, but far exceeded his “The Chosen One” hype. As for Zion Williamson, his story is still being written. Injuries have suppressed some of his early career luster, but when he’s been healthy, he’s been the dominant force he convinced everyone (and the Pelicans) that he is.

It’s hard to imagine two bigger and more hyped prospects coming along than the two we just mentioned, but there’s a real possibility we are going to relive it all over again—enter 19-year-old Victor Wembanyama and hockey hopeful Connor Bedard.

Wembanyama Fever. There’s a good chance you’ve heard of Wembanyama, all 7’3” of him that somehow makes Rudy Gobert look short. He’s been pegged as one of the biggest tank stories of all time, as teams are “bricking for Vic.” An anonymous NBA team president already put his stamp of approval on him, saying Vic would have a $500M franchise value impact on whichever franchise is lucky enough to draft him (according to Adrian Wojnarowski). Wembanyama plays in the professional French basketball league (LNB), and for the first time ever, the NBA is streaming games from the LNB on the NBA app just so fans can watch Wemby.

The Other Connor. This prospect is flying under the radar a bit more…at least here in America. And as crazy as it seems, he could end up being the more coveted prospect between the two. Connor Bedard doesn’t play basketball, but he does know how to torque the twig better than the rest of them. Bedard is a 17-year-old hockey phenom that turned heads at the World Junior Championship in early January. He scored 23 points in just SEVEN games (9 goals, 14 assists). and set two new Canadian records for most points and assists in a single tournament.

While these two players haven’t hit the big leagues yet, they are still making a massive impact on the card market.

• Wemby’s SI For Kids rookie card was released in early January, and early raw sales are between $5 and $50, completely depending on the condition. These cards are extremely delicate, as they are still released the exact same way you remember them as a kid–in perforated sheets with the cards needing to be ripped out. There hasn’t been any copies to sell yet, but we figure when the first Gem Mint copy hits the market, it’ll fetch a pretty penny. This is just a little taste of what it’ll be like when his actual cards are released. The hype will be out of this world. With National Treasures RC Patch Autos of Cade Cunningham selling for over $10,000, just imagine what an NT RPA of the “French Reaper” will sell for.

• Bedard’s card market is much more solidified, but nothing close to what it will be once the Young Guns, SP Authentic Autos, and The Cup RPAs are released. Bedard had multiple cards in the 2021 Upper Deck Canadian Juniors set, and the Patch Autos /125 have sold for A LOT. He also has a PSA 10 pre-rookie out there with his CHL team.

TAKE 5: Who’s Hot / Who’s Not

• The chase for the all-time NBA scoring record is full on for LeBron, and the card market is on high alert. By the time you read this, it’s likely King James already eclipsed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s record of 38,397. When he does, the argument of “greatest player of all-time” becomes tilted in LeBron’s favor.

• At age 34, Jacob deGrom signed a mega $185M guaranteed contract with the Texas Rangers. A great deal for him, but moving out of the New York fishbowl has dinged the value of his cards. Health and performance will be the deciding factor on if this trend turns this season.

Looking Ahead:

Excitement on the field, court, pitch, ice and track will continue to drive the sports card market. Money can be made, but there is no arguing now more than ever you have to do your homework to understand which players and cards, modern or vintage, are moving up in this market. Be on the lookout next month for a full breakdown on which cards are moving up and down the SX100 ladder!

Sports Card Shows Worth Checking Out

Feb. 9-12

• (Feb. 9-12) Burbank Card Chow, Ontario, CA
• (Feb. 11) Harrisburg Card Show, Harrisburg, IL
• (Feb. 11) Lazy Cupid Card Show, Statesboro, GA
• (Feb. 12) Hofstra Student Center Local Show, Hempstead, NY

Feb. 19

• (Feb. 19) Ramada Hotel Sports Card Show, Cedar Rapids, IA
• (Feb. 19) Central Jersey Cards & Collectibles Show, Milltown, NJ
• (Feb. 19) East Cobb Sports Collectible Show, Dunwoody, GA

Feb. 25-26

• (Feb. 25-26) East Bay Sports Card & Collectors Show, Concord, CA
• (Feb. 25) Lexington Sports Cards & Collectibles Show, Lexington, KY

February Important Product Releases

The release dates below are subject to change by the manufacturer. Dates provided by Cardboard Connection.

Feb  1:

2022 Bowman Draft Sapphire Baseball

2022 Topps Chrome Ben Baller Baseball

Feb 8:

2022 Panini Donruss Football

2022 Panini Immaculate Collection UFC

Feb 15:

2023 Topps Series 1 Baseball

2022-23 Upper Deck Series 2 Hockey

2022 Bowman University Chrome Football

2022-23 Panini Prizm Draft Picks Basketball

Feb 17:

2022 Panini Donruss Basketball

Feb 22:

2022 Panini Phoenix Football

2022-23 Panini Prizm Premier League Soccer

2022-23 Panini Revolution Premier League Soccer

Feb 24:

2022 Topps Allen & Ginter Chrome Baseball