What Is The True Risk of Grading Bowman Chrome Autos? – Data Driven

One of the easiest ways for a card to increase in value is through sending it off to PSA or BGS and receiving a Gem Mint or Pristine grade on a card. If a Bowman Chrome auto comes back a 9.5 from BGS, you’re looking at your card being worth 1.69 times more than before (could be more depending on card). If PSA gives it a 10, then 1.91 times more than before. While all of that seems great being able to turn a $100 card into a $169/$190 card, there’s the real chance it comes back a 9… or worse.

Doing self submissions isn’t easier either. It takes years of practice (trial and error) to learn an eye for the nuances of grading. If you submit through a group host, they can probably take care of that for you.

You’re probably wondering, “how are we going to assess the risk of grading?”

With data, of course! Here’s the risk of grading equation.

Equation Key

Value: what your card is currently valued at

GMMP: Gem Mint Multiplier (BGS = 1.69, PSA = 1.90)

GMRT: Gem Mint Rate (.67 to be conservative, but put in your own based on your results)

MMP: Mint Multiplier (BGS/PSA = 1.00)

MRT: Mint Rate (1 – GMMP)

Submission cost: the total cost of submitting one card for grading (varies)

Expected Value: what your card is worth after grading

Profit (or loss): the amount you make after grading

Let me say this about the equation…

1. Use your own rates. If you have a lot of grading experience, your Gem Mint rate may be higher than 67%. If you don’t have a lot of experience, it may be lower than 67%. You may also have different rates depending on PSA or BGS. Adjust accordingly.
2. The multipliers can be totally different depending on the type of card you’re sending in. 1.69 and 1.90 are a great baseline to use when submitting your $50 chrome autos, but if you’re trying to figure this out for a $5 chrome auto or $500 chrome auto, they could be different.
3. The submission cost is up to you. It is all based off of what you pay in total per card.
4. This equation is not set up to account for the chance at a BGS 10 or Black Label. It is set up to assess the differences in achieving a Gem Mint grade (which is standard). It also is not set up for the risk of an 8 or 8.5. I just sent in a PSA bulk submission of 200+ cards and I had only one 8.5 and one 8. It is a small chance of receiving one if you have any experience of grading in the past, so it shouldn’t be added into the equation.
5. Instead of using the Value*Multiplier, you can always use what the current going rate is of a Gem Mint of whatever card you’re trying to determine to get more accurate. I figured if the multipliers were used, it can adjust for real-time value, instead of choosing a sale from let’s say two weeks ago. I also thought it’d be fun to include the past data work I did to try to formulate this.

I am going to provide a few examples here of how this is calculated. One BGS, one PSA, and then one BGS accounting for a grade of a Pristine 10 (and Black Label). When I give these examples, the submission costs will be based off of Instagram group sub rates.

The way to look at the final number (profit after grading) should be this. If it is a positive number, send it in. If it is a negative number, don’t send it in (Of course that is assuming the probabilities of getting a Gem Mint and that the multipliers play out). Going further, the closer the number is to zero, the more risky it is to send in (if it’s a positive number, negative is always risky).

None of these multiplies or equations are ever going to be 100% perfect; it is absolutely impossible. However, it can provide us with a great baseline to assess our risk of grading each card.

At the end, I’ll be giving an example for 2018 Bowman Draft chrome autos. In my bulk submission, they hit at around a 50% rate which is awful for Chrome autos. The set is an extremely tough grade and you need to be educated when sending them in.

You’ll notice a couple Instagram handles when going through this. Cardcollector2 and Newenglandpieces are two group sub hosts on Instagram, and I highly recommend checking them out! They run great submissions (CC for BGS and NE for PSA). I’ve subbed with CC2 before, and I will be subbing with NE soon. Feel free to reach out to me or them on Instagram if you have any questions.

BGS:

10 Day Service – $37.50 per card (@cardcollector2)

2017 Bowman Chrome Draft Keston Hiura Auto ($90)

Risk of Grading:

(90 x 1.69 x .67) + (90 x 1.00 x .33) – $37.50 = $94.11

$94.11 – $90 = $4.11

The expected profit from sending in a Keston Hiura to BGS on a 10 day service is $4.11.

30-Day Service – $27.50 per card

Risk of Grading:

(90 x 1.69 x .67) + (90 x 1.00 x .33) – $27.50 = $104.11

$104.11 – $90 = $14.11

Waiting longer to receive your card back results in less risk (due to cost of grading).

PSA:

10 Day Service – $25 per card (@newenglandpieces)

2017 Bowman Chrome Keston Hiura Auto ($90)

Risk of Grading:

(90 x 1.90 x .67) + (90 x 1.00 x .33) – $25 = $119.87

$119.87 – $90 = $29.87

The expected profit from sending in a Keston Hiura to PSA on a 10 day service is $29.87.

20-Day Service – $13 per card (@newenglandpieces)

Risk of Grading:

(90 x 1.90 x .67) + (90 x 1.00 x .33) – $13 = $131.87

$131.87 – $90 = $41.87

BGS 10 Example:

10-Day Service – $37.50 per card (@cardcollector2)

2017 Bowman Chrome Draft Keston Hiura Auto ($90)

Risk of Grading:

(90 x 7.04 x .01) + (90 x 3.35 x .22) + (90 x 1.69 x .67) + (90 x 1.00 x .10) – $37.50 = $146.07

$146.07 – $90 = $56.07

I allocated different percentages based on a Black Label, Pristine, Gem Mint, and Mint. I am not sure how accurate those are since it is impossible to determine (all depends on how confident you are in a BGS 10), but I thought it was fair to give a card you think may get a BGS 10 a 90% chance to get a 9.5 or above.

My hope is you can use something like this to calculate out what your risk of grading is. If you can find Gem Mint sales that are guaranteed the current value of a Gem Mint card, use that to calculate the risk of grading.

I’ll leave you with an example of that for a 30 day BGS submission for Keston Hiura again:

(144 x .67) + (90 x .33) – 27.50 = $98.68

$98.68 – $90 = $8.68

Are you going to start to consider the risks of grading more?

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